Hillary Clinton's Campaign
Has Reason For Optimism In Several Swing States -- And Appears To Have Turned Arizona
Into A Battleground -- As Millions Of Americans Vote Early.
More Than 7.3 Million Americans Have
Already Voted. Democrats Have Improved Their Positions In North Carolina, Nevada
And Arizona Compared To This Point In 2012, According To A CNN Analysis Of The
Latest Early Voting Statistics.
Republicans, Meanwhile, Have Good
News In Iowa. Republicans Have Improved Their Position There Over 2012 --
Backing Up The Polls Which Suggest It Could Be The Easiest State Won By President
Barack Obama For Trump To Flip This Year.
And In Florida, Where The Latest
Comparable Data Comes From 2008, Democrats -- Buoyed By An Increasingly Diverse
Electorate -- Have Cut Deeply Into The Traditional Republican Advantage In
Early Ballots Cast So Far.
These Findings Represent Absentee
Ballots Submitted And Early Votes Cast Through Tuesday Across 35 States Where
Data Are Available. Catalist, A Data Company That Works With Progressive
Candidates And Advocacy Groups, Academics And Think Tanks, Connects The Data To
Voter Records, Allowing A Deeper Look At Who Has Already Cast A Vote In This
Year's Election.
Across 12 Battleground States
Where Data Are Available, More Than 4.6 Million Votes Have Been Cast. Here's A
Look At The Early Voting Data From Several Of Those Battleground States:
Arizona
Registered Democrats Continue To
Outpace Registered Republicans In Early Voting. They're Ahead By 4,116 Votes, A
Major Improvement From Their Position At This Time Four Years Ago, When They
Trailed By 21,179.
Two-Thirds Of Arizona Voters Cast
Their Ballots Before Election Day In 2012 -- Making These Early Voting Numbers
Crucial To Watch For Clinton And Trump.
Colorado
This Is The First Presidential
Election Where All Registered Coloradans Can Vote-By-Mail. Ballots Went Out
Last Week, And Democrats Have Been Increasing Their Advantage Over Republicans As
People Cast Their Votes.
Democrats Have Outvoted Republicans
By More Than 10,000 Votes, Doubling Their Lead Since Saturday. This Could Be
Very Good News For Clinton, Because At This Point In 2012, Republicans Had The
Advantage By About 7,600 Votes.
Georgia
More Than 583,000 People Have
Already Voted In Georgia -- That's A 40% Turnout Increase From This Point In
2012.
Voters Don't Register By Party In
Georgia, So Party Breakdown For Early Voters Isn't Available.
Half The State Voted Early In
2012.
Florida
As In-Person Early Voting Kicks
Off In Florida, Republicans Are Ahead, But By A Narrow Margin. They Currently
Hold An 18,120-Vote Advantage, A Paltry Amount Compared To Their 113,222-Vote
Edge At This Time In 2008.
The Clinton Campaign Has Touted
Its Efforts To Register Hispanic Voters In Florida, And That Might Be Paying
Off. They Comprise About 12% Of The Early Voting Electorate So Far -- Up From
8% In 2008. In Addition, the Share Of The White Vote Has Dropped From 82% In
2008 To Just Over 77% This Year.
There Were Reports Of Long Lines
Stretching Past 90 Minutes In Miami-Dade County As In-Person Early Voting Began
Monday -- With Voters Telling Reporters They Were Motivated By Their Distaste
For Trump Or Clinton.
Iowa
Iowa, Where 43% Of The Vote Came
Early In 2012, Continues To Provide A Flicker Of Good News For Trump.
Democrats Are Ahead Of Republicans
In The Latest Early Vote Count, But Their Margin Is Lower Than It Was At This
Point In 2012, To The Tune Of About 7,200 Votes. This Gap Isn't As Wide As It
Was Last Week, But Democrats Will Need To Ramp Up Their Efforts In Iowa If They
Want To Hold The Hawkeye State.
Nevada
In-Person Early Voting Kicked Off
Across Nevada Over The Weekend And Democrats Have Flocked To The Polls. They Hold
A Nearly 15,000-Vote Lead, A Slight Improvement From Their Position In 2012.
Overall, Early Turnout Is 18%
Lower Than 2012 But Slightly Higher Than 2008.
Nevada Is A Crucial Early Voting
State. In 2012, 69% Of The State's Electorate Cast Their Ballots Before Election
Day.
North Carolina
Registered Democrats Have Jumped
Ahead Of Registered Republicans By More Than 100,000 Votes In The Tar Heel
State So Far, As Thousands Of Voters Cast Ballots Over The Weekend. The
Democratic Edge Is Slightly Higher Than It Was In 2012.
However, if Clinton Wants To Flip
North Carolina Blue This Year, She'll Need Strong Turnout from African-Americans.
At This Point In 2012, Black Voters Were 30% Of The Electorate. They're Only
About 25% today.
North Carolina Reduced Its Early
Voting Window, And The Total Ballots Cast So Far Is Down By More Than 180,000
Votes Compared With 2012, But It's Still A Critical Early Voting State. Sixty-One
Percent Of The State Voted Early In 2012.
Utah
At This Point In 2012, Republicans
Led Democrats In Early Voting By More Than 31,000 Voters. But So Far This Year,
the GOP Advantage Is Only 15,834.
That's A Drop Of About 50% For
The GOP In The Most Surprising State In Play In The 2016 Election.
Still, It's Hard To Read Much
Into Utah's Statistics. The State Is A Republican Stronghold. But Trump's Unpopularity
With Its Mormon Voters -- Combined With Independent Conservative Candidate Evan
Mcmullin's Focus There -- Has Turned It Into A Three-Way Race, With Clinton Hoping
To Slide Past A Divided GOP. There's No Way To Tell At This Stage Whether Those
Republican Ballots Went For Trump, Mcmullin Or Someone Else.
There's Also The Reality That The
Popularity Of Romney, A Mormon, In Utah In 2012 Fueled Interest In That Cycle. Republicans'
Advantage Today Is Stronger Than The 2,231-Voter Edge The GOP Had In Utah In
2008.
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