Donald Trump is attempting to crack Hillary Clinton's
blue wall. And Clinton is hoping for a surge in Latino turnout fueled by
opposition to Trump.
The
two candidates are making a last-minute dash across swing states like Florida,
Pennsylvania and North Carolina as the 2016 presidential race enters its final
hours. They've also gone north to Michigan and New Hampshire to states
Democrats have won in recent cycles but could flip this year.
Here
are the key states and signs to study as the night unfolds:
Trump's must-wins
Most
plausible paths to victory for Trump start with holding onto two battlegrounds
that Mitt Romney won four years ago -- North Carolina and Arizona -- and
flipping three states President Barack Obama carried: Florida, Ohio and Iowa.
A
loss in any of the states would severely complicate Trump's already precarious
path to 270 electoral votes. Though if Trump clawed back Pennsylvania or
Michigan from the Democrats, who have won both electoral-rich states six times
in a row, North Carolina would be more expendable. A win in a state like
Pennsylvania or Michigan would allow Trump to offset a loss in North Carolina
and still have a shot at reaching 270.
If
that doesn't happen, holding North Carolina and Arizona, while reclaiming
Florida, Ohio and Iowa from the Democrats -- plus Maine's 2nd District -- would
only get him to 260.
Trump
would need to tack on 10 more electoral votes somehow. New Hampshire's four and
Nevada's six would get him there. Colorado, with nine electoral votes, Michigan
with 15 and Pennsylvania with 20 are also possibilities.
In
his last 48 hours before Election Day, Trump has been pretty much everywhere,
including Colorado, Michigan -- even Minnesota -- searching for the extra votes
he needs.
Clinton's must-wins
The
key question for Clinton is whether her "blue wall" of
Democratic-leaning states on the Great Lakes -- Pennsylvania, Michigan and
Wisconsin -- will hold.
Trump
has targeted all three, but Clinton has consistently led polls in all three
states. However, most voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania cast their ballots on
Election Day -- which means her campaign hasn't built the early voting
advantage already in place elsewhere.
If
Clinton can do that and pick up just one of North Carolina, Florida or Ohio,
she's all but guaranteed to win.
If
she can't win one of those three states, she'll need to hold Virginia,
vote-by-mail Colorado, New Hampshire and Nevada -- where Democrats have already
built a hefty early voting edge.
Does Latino turnout surge?
If
Clinton wins, her coalition will consist of women, college-educated voters and
a swell of new Latino voters.
In
early voting in states like Nevada, and Florida, there's already evidence of
burgeoning Latino turnout. This is best witnessed by the over 57,000 people who
voted in Nevada Friday, with pictures of long lines and extended hours at a
Latino grocery store in Clark County.
Many
first-time voters, polls show, are turning out to oppose Trump. And Democrats
are bullish that Latinos have been under-polled through the entire 2016
election cycle.
For
Reince Priebus, the Republican National Committee chairman, this is a ghost of
elections past. After the 2012 race, the RNC warned that the party needed to do
more to court Latino voters. A nominee who roundly rejected that advice could
be the reason the party loses a third consecutive presidential race.
Just
as Trump's attacks on Mexican immigrants have alienated Latino voters, his
attacks on women and allegations of sexual assault have helped Clinton to a
large lead among female voters. Clinton's campaign has highlighted Trump's most
derogatory remarks in TV ads aimed at moderate, suburban women -- a
constituency that has helped Republican nominees in years past. If she
succeeds, it would limit Trump's strengths to rural areas.
Does Trump have a "silent majority"?
Trump's
biggest strength is his overwhelming support from disaffected white voters --
particularly men, and especially those without college degrees.
His
campaign has long argued that those voters -- many of them independent or
Democrats who buy into Trump's protectionist stance on trade -- will carry him
on Election Day.
For
this to happen, Trump will also need core Democratic voters to stay at home, as
well.
Already,
Trump appears poised to win Iowa, and has polled ahead of Clinton in Ohio. He's
hoping to win enough blue-collar Democrats in Pennsylvania or Michigan to win
at least one of those states.
Michigan,
in particular, emerged as a tempting target in the campaign's closing days -- a
state hard-hit by the trade deals Trump bemoans. Clinton's campaign raced to
play defense, dispatching the former secretary of state there, as well as
President Barack Obama, for last-minute rallies.
Do African-American voters show up?
Among
Democrats' biggest concerns has been whether African-American voters -- a
reliably left-leaning constituency -- will turn out in numbers anywhere close
to their support for Obama in 2008 and 2012.
If
the answer is no, it could hobble Clinton in key states -- particularly Florida
and North Carolina.
Obama
is helping carry Clinton's load with black voters. In a call to Tom Joyner's
radio show, he argued that participating in this election is just as much about
him as it is about Clinton.
"And
I know that there are a lot of people in barbershops and beauty salons, you
know, in the neighborhoods who are saying to themselves 'We love Barack, we
love -- we especially love Michelle -- and so, you know, it was exciting and
now we're not excited as much,'" he said. "You know what? I need
everybody to understand that everything we've done is dependent on me being
able to pass the baton to somebody who believes in same things I believe
in."
The post-Trump GOP starts now
Since
Trump clinched the GOP nomination in May, Republican Senate and House
candidates have been forced to answer for everything he has said -- from his
attacks on a Gold Star family and an Indiana-born judge's heritage to his
rejection of conservative orthodoxy.
As
soon as the election ends, Capitol Hill Republicans -- especially if they
retain control of both the House and Senate -- will regain power.
The
party will have to decide just what to do with Trump's rejection of free trade,
his calls for a decreased US role overseas and his criticism of GOP
congressional leaders -- whether he wins or loses.
But
adopting some of Trump's policy planks while rejecting his political style
might not help much after an election driven by the candidates' personalities.
How the loser handles losing
For
a nation divided by a long, bitter contest, this could be the most important
question of all: Will the loser concede -- and how will he or she do it?
Trump
and Clinton are both historically unpopular presidential nominees. Half the
country thinks Clinton is a crook, and the other half thinks Trump is a racist
and misogynist.
And
Trump, in particular, has cast the election as rigged -- calling into question
whether ballots that are mailed in will be counted, playing up inaccurate
reports of voter irregularities and claiming that voter fraud is pervasive.
The
loser will play a crucial role in legitimizing the victor -- or delegitimizing
the winner from the outset.


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